Some quick thoughts on Clay Holmes.
Our new Seth Lugo? I say yes.
Clay Holmes is a starter — and I love it.
We all saw how good Holmes looked in his first appearance as a Met: he was confident, in control of the game, and had excellent touch on some of his nastier pitches. His placement was largely rock solid, which has proven to be an issue in the past, so it's still something to keep an eye on. But overall, his first start in 7 years went as perfectly as you can hope. (Literally: he tossed three perfect innings with 3 Ks.)
But of course, more questions — like yours, gentle reader — linger: how will he look after 80+ IP when he’s only topped out at 70 to this point in his career? Will he be able to maintain consistent command over longer outings? How game-changing will his new pitches be?
We saw what Holmes hopes to be a put-away pitch in 2025 on display in his debut on Saturday: the ‘kick change’. In addition to its outrageous action, diving across the zone before quickly tailing off and in, what’s going to make this one particularly dangerous is how he tunnels it with his signature pitch: his sinker.
(Video courtesy of Pitching Ninja on Twitter; Substack doesn’t let you embed posts from the Bad Place.)
When I look at Holmes’s pitch data through last season, I like most of what I see:
Though the fastball hasn’t been particularly effective at any point in his career, its velo has never been the problem. He’s averaged 96-97 mph on his four-seamer over the last four seasons, so what I’ll be looking for this season are any improvements in horizontal movement and/or spin that the lab can coax out of him.
I also love to see a 100th percentile ground ball rate: that is tremendous, especially with the infield defense he’ll have behind him. 84th percentile in barrel rate and whiff rate is also terrific, and certainly played heavily into his xERA of 3.29 last season. It’s also a big part of his 3.34 career SIERA.
Another thing I love about Holmes’s career so far is his K-BB%. Currently, his career ratio is 24.7 K%-10.5 BB%. Combine that with his SIERA and his career 3.49 xFIP, and you’ve got yourself a very solid pitcher on the bump no matter when he gets the ball.
Here’s some more stuff that I like: his two best pitches.
Looking at these heat maps, it’s pretty clear why these are the two pitches Holmes goes to most often. The slider is particularly lethal, generating a 42% K rate against just a 7% walk rate in 2024. Hitters only managed to hit .155 against it all season, alongside a .081 ISO. He found similar success with the sinker, working it to the tune of a 13.5% K rate against an 8.3% walk rate.
(Granted, the BAA against that pitch wasn’t terrific — .317 — but it also generated a 68% ground ball rate…and we all remember what that Yankees infield defense looked like in 2024. That should improve quickly.)
Now, when it comes to the extended innings, I’m not really all that concerned about it impacting his performance at all. That’s not just a gut feeling; even Fangraphs says innings pitched (IP) isn’t a particularly effective metric in accurately projecting future performance — it’s actually the least accurate they’ve tested.
A perfect case study for this is Seth Lugo. In 2023, Lugo made the transition from bullpen to rotation, and he didn’t miss a beat, despite throwing about 60 more innings. He finished his season with a 3.57 ERA, 3.83 FIP, a 1.203 WHIP, a 118 ERA+, and 140 Ks.
His per-season averages to that point? 71 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.164 WHIP, 115 ERA+, 73 Ks.
You may have noticed virtually zero change in performance.
Now, let’s look at Holmes’s career per-season line: 73 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.301 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 78 Ks.
Hmmmm. That sure does look familiar!
Looking at Lugo’s immediate success in his new role, I believe there’s a reasonable expectation that Holmes will find similar success. If his first performance is any indication of what’s to come, I’m not sure how anyone can argue that.
In short…
I don’t see any reason to doubt Holmes’s ability to sustain his career success over an extended workload. To hear Holmes tell it, he and the team in the lab have been working since the winter to get him ready to go for a more intense season.
Clay Holmes and the Mets staff are going to be solid this year. Do I think it’ll look the same in August as it does today? Of course not — that would be naïve.
But I do expect Holmes to slot into a high-leverage, impactful rotation spot pretty quickly. If the rest of his Spring looks like his debut…who can say no?